For more on the background and history of these important relationships, see my book with former AGI Director Mwangi S. Kimenyi, Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime., not be filled without a legally binding agreement, when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. Sudan, caught between the competing interests of both Egypt and Ethiopia, has been changing its stance on the issue. The GERD and the Revival of the Egyptian-Sudanese Dispute over the Nile Waters. . There has long been a conflict over water rights among the riparian countries of the Eastern Nile Basin (Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia). Moreover, it arguably prohibits any reduction of flow to Egypt by limiting Ethiopias use of the Dam to electricity generation alone. Nile negotiations break down as Egypt, Sudan accuse Ethiopia of rejecting legally binding agreement. It simultaneously expects that this role will change Ethiopias international status from a country perceived as poor and dependent on foreign aid to a regional power able to provide vital resources to its surrounding region. Sign up for news on environment, conflict and cooperation. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) constitutes a real crisis for the Egyptian regime, where Ethiopia several times blamed Egypt for the failure of negotiations conducted between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia on the dam. Egypt says. It was in the hope of protecting Lake Turkana against such threats that it was listed as a World Heritage Site. Before discussing the benefits, the article will brief the general technical overview of the GERDP. According to present plans, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) now under construction across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia will be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, and one of the 12 largest in the world. Review a brief history of copyright in the United States. The crucial leverage regarding Egypts water security lies with the Blue Nile countries Ethiopia and Sudan, as the Blue Nile is the main contributor to the Nile Rivers flow downstream. In any event, the dispute remains. Perhaps the most obvious argument that Ethiopia may want to make is a rebuttal to Egypts continued reliance on the Nile Water Treaties. Egypt has also escalated its call to the international community to get involved. Al Jazeera (2020). As a consequence, Ethiopia has not been able to make significant use of the rivers waters. IDS (2013). The GERD has the potential to act both as driver for conflict, but also for cooperation. The Political Deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. In fact, the Dam arguably smooths out the flow and mitigates the risk of both drought and floods. But the Ethiopian elites show little interest in addressing such concerns, bent as they are on a nationalist revivalist project that claims an Ethiopian exceptionalism that places Addis Ababa above international law as it pursues a water-management strategy that has less to do with its development aims than with its ambitions to weaponise water in a bid for regional hegemony. Because the strategy of land allocation and dam construction relied on senior executive decisions and foreign funding from China, above all, the government was largely freed of pressures of transparency and accountability. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) takes an expansionist view towards decolonisation as seen in the Chagos Islands Advisory Opinion, in which it allowed the decolonisation agenda to trump the UKs lack of consent to any contentious proceedings. An unsubscribe function is also at the bottom of every newsletter. Egypt and Ethiopia have once again locked horns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. The dispute escalated in 2011 when Ethiopia began construction of a major new dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in the absence of any agreement with downstream Egypt. The various warnings by experts about the dangers of the new Ethiopian dam have begun to cause panic among Egyptians, to the point of belief that the Aswan Dam will collapse once the Renaissance is completed. Egypt, Ethiopia to form joint committee on Renaissance Dam. The current global energy crisis may help in this regard in the sense that Egyptians may find the allure of discounted hydroelectric energy stronger than ever before. According to this narrative, the Blue Nile, or Abay in Amharic, is a purely Ethiopian river. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Sudans agricultural and hydropower interests align with those of Ethiopia while it has a strong interest in not alienating its 'big brother' and northern neighbour, Egypt, with whom it shares a long and partly contested border (Whittington et al., 2014). Flashcards. Success on this endeavor will only occur under a legally binding regime that ensures mutually beneficial rights. Over the years, Egypt has used its extensive diplomatic connections and the colonial-era 1929 and 1959 agreements to successfully prevent the construction of any major infrastructure projects on the tributaries of the Nile. "Today as you see behind me . Thus, as with the Watercourses Convention and the CFA, the DoP does not offer a clear legal resolution to the dispute. Since 2015, technical reports on the potential impacts of the dam have failed to reach a consensus within the TNC (Maguid, 2017). The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. Political instability in Egypt played an important role as the announcement of the project coincided with the resignation of President Mubarak during the Arab Spring. Learn the history of Toronto from the city's official website. Elliot Winter is a lecturer (assistant professor) in international law at Newcastle University in the United Kingdom. Indeed, Principle II notes that the purpose of the [Dam] is for power generation and regional integration through generation of sustainable and reliable clean energy supply. This is crucial given that hydroelectricity generation simply involves holding water back behind a dam for a period of time, and then releasing it again in a managed manner so that the electric turbines can spin consistently. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation. 67K views 6 months ago ETIOPIA The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile, is located around 14 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan Border, at around 700 km from the Capital. The Nile is not a boundary-delimiting river, hence Ethiopia would almost certainly argue that the exception should not be applied here. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Niles water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam. (eds.). The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. These hydraulic mega-projects underscore the ambitious local and regional political aims of the Ethiopian ruling elites. 1800m long and 170m high. Afraid that a drought might appear during the filling period, Egypt wants the filling to take place over a much longer period. Cooperation among the three countries has never been more important as demand for water rises, she added, due to factors such as population growth, urbanization and industrialization. In 2019, the UNESCO World Heritage Committee warned that the Gibe III Dam had already disrupted the seasonal patterns of Lake Turkana and that this would reduce fish life and harm local communities dependent on the Lake. Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Egyptian National Panel of Experts studying the effects of the Renaissance Dam, believes as much. On March 4, 1982, Bertha Wilson became the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada. Swain, A. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a critical project that intends to provide hydroelectricity to support the livelihoods of millions of people in the region. L'Europe en Formation, 365(3), 99-138. They can also cause dispute and heartachefor example, over damage to. An agreement between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is within reach, with the United Nations standing ready to support talks and the African Union-led process to settle remaining differences, the Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs told the Security Council in a 29 June videoconference meeting*. The dispute over the GERD is part of a long-standing feud between Egypt and Sudanthe downstream stateson the one hand, and Ethiopia and the upstream riparians on the other over access to the Niles waters, which are considered a lifeline for millions of people living in Egypt and Sudan. While the water will return to its normal state before reaching Egypt, the damage to these populations will be permanent. This is a matter of acute concern given that Egypt depends on the Nile for about 97% of its irrigation and drinking water. Article IV of the DoP provides that the parties shall utilize their shared water resources in their respective territories in an equitable and reasonable manner and Article III provides that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm in utilizing the Blue/Main Nile. Ethiopia can make a strong case that the operation of the Dam complies with each principle. Faced with the anachronistic Nile Waters Treaties on the one hand and the absence of a suitable replacement on the other, discussions about the Dam have fallen into something of a stalemate. Since its inception, there have been two, highly contentious, products. The Eastern Nile Basin is of critical geopolitical importance to the Niles overall hydro-political regime. On March 4, 1834, the town of York in the British colony of Canada was incorporated as the City of Toronto. 2011. how much does the reservoir contain? This agreement could pave the way for a more detailed cooperation framework, and represents a major step toward dispute resolution. What are the disadvantages of the Aswan Dam? Amazingly, the normally required social and environmental impact studies were only conducted three years after construction of the dam had began. Addis Ababa has said the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $4bn hydropower project, is crucial to its economic development and to provide power. A more recent trilateral meeting mediated by the African Union in mid-July, however, appeared to diffuse the situation with all three countries reaching a major common understanding towards achieving an agreement (Al Jazeera, 2020). Cameroon's Choupo-Moting scores winner as Bayern reclaim Bundesliga top.. English Premier League results & fixtures (26th matchday), Germany Bundesliga results & fixtures (23rd matchday), Israeli delegation expelled from the African Union summit. Ethiopias dam-construction strategy threatens not only Kenyas water-resource development efforts but also Somalias water security, as is evidenced by Ethiopias development plans for the Jubba and Shebelle Rivers. After all, the VCLT allows states to withdraw from or terminate a treaty owing to a fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred and which was not foreseen by the parties (Article 62(1)). If the relevant parties can agree to these goals, the agreement, in the end, will need to include technical language that ensures equitable sharing of the Nile. However, this threatens the basin's long-term sustainability (as water use expands beyond what is environmentally feasible) and suboptimal in terms of capital allocation (as higher water use upstream may make downstream projects uneconomical (Swain, 2011). "I came to Cairo on my first official trip to the region to hear . Could the Nile dispute be an opportunity to boost freshwater technology? From this round of talks, it appears that negotiations are able to move forward and address other sticking points on the agenda, such as conflict resolution mechanisms and the dams operations in the event of multi-year droughts (Al Jazeera, 2020). The New Arab (2020a). Tawfik, Rawia Discussion Paper 5/2015 . Already, on June 19, 2020, Egyptian authorities called upon the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene after tripartite talks had failed to secure an agreement on the filling schedule for the GERD. Both citizens and governments should be made part of the solution to the water-related conflicts that now threaten peace and security in the Nile Basin. Nevertheless, it is important to take stock of the human costs, social problems, and lasting environmental impacts of this strategy which have already drawn considerable criticism and concern. It too has legal arguments it could adduce in support of its position that the Dam is permitted under international law. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours Ethiopia's strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. The strategy and its surrounding narrative have attracted large influxes of foreign investment in the Ethiopian agrarian sector, with multi-million dollar leases of agricultural land to foreigners generally linked to irrigation projects planned in tandem with the construction of the dam. Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Nile's water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. According to Article 16, former colonies do not inherit the treaty obligations of their former colonial rulers and instead receive a clean slate. However, Egypt could argue that the territorial treaty exception, under Articles 11 and 12, applies whereby colonial treaty provisions concerning boundaries must survive the impact of succession and bind successor states. Ethiopia also seems to have the political upper hand given that the Dam is effectively a fait accompli and given that Egypts erstwhile downstream ally, Sudan, switched sides in the dispute leaving the Egyptians diplomatically isolated. Egypt has issued a public statement to that effect. Here, for the first time, Egypt recognised Ethiopias right to use the Nile for development purposes. Consequently, it suits Egypts interests in this context to argue that the DoP is binding, that it precludes any net loss of flow and therefore that the use of the Dam for irrigation purposes is prohibited. The current filling which is ongoing since early July 2021 has presented no issues as well. The withdrawal from the project by Deltares has been met by a wave of objections in Egypt for fear . The treaties also purported to give Egypt veto power over upstream projects. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Nile Basins GERD dispute creates risks for Egypt, Sudan, and beyond. Subsequent impact studies were performed by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, and in the light of the results, these banks cancelled their funding for Gibe III. Ultimately, all the water is allowed to pass downstream such that there is no net loss of flow (with the exception of water lost to evaporation). It has also expressed concerns about the potential impact the initial filling of the dam will have on areas downstream. The former was initially funded by the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, but these later withdrew for legal and other reasons. However, the Convention took almost twenty years to enter into force (from 1997 to 2014) due to the lack of necessary ratifications by states. Ethiopia, with a population of more than 115 million people and Projected to be 230 million by 2050. to hydrate farmland), it would effectively be taken from downstream states like Egypt. The instrument was a success in terms of cooling tensions between the states which seemed increasingly likely to come to blows. Indeed, Sudan had initially opposed the Dam but changed its position in 2012 after consultations with Ethiopia. Lastly, over-year storage facilities upstream in Ethiopia will allow Sudan to increase its water use. This antipathy is not new, with Munzinger noting even in the nineteenth century that Ethiopia is a danger for Egypt [which] must either take over Ethiopia and Islamize it or, retain it in anarchy and misery. Still, the Dam brings the old enmity into sharp focus. (2012). These are two of the largest dams in Africa. That seems unlikely given that the DoP concerns the Dam alone and was agreed only between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan; whereas the Nile Waters Treaties concern the whole Nile Basin and involve many more states. However, Ethiopia ultimately refused to sign the draft agreement. In July of 2021, the second filling of the dam was completed. Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. khadsyy Plus. Maguid, M.A. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Despite the intense disagreements, though, Ethiopia continues to move forward with the dam, arguing that the hydroelectric project will significantly improve livelihoods in the region more broadly. A significant segment of local opinion is also aware of the well-known problems that come with mega-dams wherever they are built, among them population displacements and resettlement, reductions in the quality of life, the spread of waterborne diseases, salinisation and the loss of productive and profitable lands, more intense competition over the remaining available land, and losses of cultural and historic heritage. l located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia . However, it also entails potential negative effects on Egypt, if not carefully managed (see alsoSecurity implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt). Ultimately, however, Egypt did not sign the CFA (nor did Sudan) hence it does not resolve the dispute. Despite several tripartite meetings between November 2013 and January 2014, no agreement was reached on the implementation of the IPoE recommendations and controversies were evolving around the constitution of a trilateral committee. Finally, Ethiopia could make a strong case that the operation of the Dam is in alignment with the core principles of international water law, namely equitable utilisation and no significant harm. These are found in Articles 5 and 7 of the Water Courses Convention respectively and, despite the scepticism outlined above, arguably form part of customary international law. The dispute resolution committee could be made up of the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM), which includes the ministers in charge of water affairs in all member states of the Nile River Basin. the study highlights the importance of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of counter-hegemonic tactics in general, and of large dam projects in particular, and . Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. International rights organisations have reported that many cases of displacement were not voluntary and that entire communities were driven from their villages. 4. Yet, Ethiopia is fully aware of Somalias economic dependence on the rivers originating from Ethiopias highlands. At stake, too, is . In order to sustain this benefit in the long run, Ethiopias neighbouring countries will have to continue to purchase hydroelectric energy, and rainfall will have to fall at the same rate on the Ethiopian Plateau. The Gerd is expected to generate over 5,000 megawatts of electricity, doubling the nation's . Churning waters: Strategic shifts in the Nile basin. This is good news for Egypt and Sudan as hydropower means little actual water withdrawal. First woman appointed to the Canada Supreme Court. For a decade, Egypt and Ethiopia have been at a diplomatic stalemate over the Nile's management. Trilateral talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to finalise an agreement on a cooperation framework for the GERD have been mediated by the African Union, World Bank and United States. In fact, about 85 % of the overall Nile flow originates on Ethiopian territory (Swain, 2011). Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in Africa, has the second largest population in the continent. First, as noted above, Ethiopia contributes 86% of the water in the Nile and so it seems only natural that it has an equitable claim to using Nile waters to aid growth in its impoverished economy. However, for the reasons given above, the Nile Waters Treaties are unlikely to be considered territorial treaties. Furthermore, resolving conflicts involving the Nile River is most likely to be more successful through improvements in relations between the riparians and not through external intervention. It will take between eight and ten years to fill the new dam. for seepage and evaporation, but afforded no water to Ethiopia or other upstream riparian statesthe sources of most of the water that flows into the Nile. It is therefore intrinsically connected with the question of land ownership. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Second, regarding the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty, although Ethiopia was a party and although that instrument does deal with the flow of water on the Nile, its terms are strictly limited. In contrast, other watercourse states on the Nile have lent their support to the Dam. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. Cairo . Created by. The multi-services provided by the hydropower development and its technical advantages could be driving forces for local, regional and national development, and a catalyst for sustainable development. At that point, the lake that . This is an intergovernmental partnership to provide a forum for consultation and coordination for the sustainable management and development of shared water. Ethiopian general threatens military force to defend Nile dam as negotiations with Egypt falter. The principles of cooperation have not been translated into specific technical agreements on dam management (and more), in the context of difficult domestic politics for both sides. This includes Sudan, another downstream nation that one might assume would oppose its construction. In turn, Egypt water policy and management should be changes or modified to overcome the great challenges. What Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must overcome to all benefit from the Grand Renaissance Dam. The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa's largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries. l Coordinates 111255N 3505 . The Dam is used to generate electricity and went into partial operation in 2022. This represents a new challenge to the basins current hydro-political regime and status quo, as it may drive Sudans interest in renegotiating its current quota(Link et al., 2012;Whittington et al., 2014). DISADVANTAGES OF ASWAN DAM the agriculture output of Egypt. Further, it means that this figure should be used to assess the impact of the Dam on the Egyptian economy for the purposes of calculating compensation resulting from loss of flow. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam located in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 45 km east of the border with Sudan. Attia, H. & Saleh, M. (2021). Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG, 79-110. It is clearly a philosophy that looks beyond the electricity and freshwater needs of local communities to a geo-strategic restructuring of the Horn of Africa.

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